October 30, 2006
Scoreboard summary table (pdf)
Here are the CURRENT (14) potentially-contested-but-not-polled Democratic seats:
CO-03, GA-08, GA-12, IL-17, KS-03, LA-02, LA-03, OH-13, OR-05, SC-05, SD-AL, TX-22 (last held by Republican Tom DeLay), UT-02, WA-02
Here are the CURRENT (10) potentially-contested-but-not-polled Republican seats:
AZ-05, CO-05, FL-08, FL-09, KY-02, NE-01, NV-02, NH-01, TX-23, WY-AL
October 18, 2006
Here are the CURRENT (14) potentially-contested-but-not-polled Democratic seats:
CO-03, GA-08, GA-12, IL-17, KS-03, LA-02, LA-03, OH-13, OR-05, SC-05, SD-AL, TX-22 (last held by Republican Tom DeLay), UT-02, WA-02
Here are the CURRENT (14) potentially-contested-but-not-polled Republican seats:
AZ-05, CA-11, CO-05, FL-08, FL-09, KY-02, NE-01, NV-02, NH-01, NH-02, OH-01, PA-04, TX-23, WY-AL
October 4, 2006
Here are ALL the (16) potentially-contested-but-not-polled Democratic seats:
CO-03, GA-08, GA-12, IL-17, KS-03, LA-02, LA-03, ND-AL, OH-13, OR-05, SC-05, SD-AL, TX-17, TX-22 (last held by Republican Tom DeLay), UT-02, WA-02
Here are ALL the (28) potentially-contested-but-not-polled Republican seats:
AZ-05, CA-04, CA-11, CT-05, FL-08, FL-09, ID-01, IL-10, IL-11, IA-02, KY-02, KY-03, MN-01, NV-02, NH-01, NH-02, NJ-07, NY-03, NY-19, NY-20, NY-25, NY-29, OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, PA-07, TX-23, WY-AL
With results from FL-16 now in (weak D lead), the race stands as follows:
Even if Republicans win both the weak Republican-led races and both tie races, the 218 Majority indicator would wind up in the blue zone—indicating a Democratic majority.
If D’s lose both tie races but win all 8 weak D races, the score will be 219 D – 216 R.
You can look for a big dump of new polls next week, which will cover many of the races listed here as currently contested-but-not-polled, as well as updating some of the races we last polled in August. Expect the scoreboard to change again at that time.
Comment [3]
We have posted the results from surveys in six more contested congressional districts:
Illinois 8th
Illinois 10th
New York 19th
New York 20th
New York 25th
New York 29th
These polls were conducted October 15th and 16th. We last surveyed IL-08 at the end of August; the others races were not previously covered by Majority Watch.
Comment [3]
We’ve decided to not poll in Texas’s 22nd congressional district this election cycle.
This seat was previously held by former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay. Since DeLay won the the March Republican primary before resigning and declaring Virginia residency, no replacement Republican candidate can appear on the ballot. Republicans have launched a write-in campaign for Houston City Councilmember Shelley Sekula-Gibbs.
We have concluded that voter opinion on this race cannot be accurately measured using telephone surveys. While it is not impossible to win a write-in campaign (it has happened four times in the history of the US House), it’s unlikely. Our scoreboard therefore assumes victory by the Democratic candidate, former congressman Nick Lampson.
Comment [2]